Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 20 March 2014

…. Humidity and Increased Clouds Beginning Tonight into Friday ….
…. Chance of Rain Friday Through the Weekend ….
…. Return to Sunshine for Early to Mid Parts of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends from southern Alabama and southeastern Louisiana and then a stationary front offshore of the Texas coast into south Texas. High pressure /1022mb/ is situated over north Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the eastern third of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

As this surface high moves east of the area later today into tonight.. low level moisture begins to increase and clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness.  By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slightly better chance of rain.

Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance continues to suggest that passing upper level disturbances gliding up and over the surface based cool air will allow for clouds to linger with some overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday and early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall for the weekend into early next week being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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