Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 19 March 2014
…. Sunshine and a Bit Cooler Today ….
…. Humidity and Increased Clouds For the Latter Part of the Week ….
…. Chance of Rain Friday Through the Weekend ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends from the Ohio Valley region southwestward through Arkansas to along the Texas coast into northern Mexico south of Del Rio. Surface high pressure /1020mb/ is over northwestern Texas into the Rockies. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the plains states. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 55 to 65 mph.
In the wake of our early morning cold front this morning, cooler and drier air is arriving as surface high pressure settles into the area. Smoky/hazy conditions prevail as smoke from fires to our northwest west through north of Fort Hood.. over the last 24 hours.. blows southward in the wake of the front.
As this surface high moves east of the area by tomorrow.. low level moisture increases by late week, clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness. By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slim chance of rain.
Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance suggests that passing upper level disturbances may allow for clouds to linger back over the cooler air with some indication of patchy light overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday and early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through tomorrow and Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall for the weekend into early next week being the issues).
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel