TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 2 April 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning with patchy drizzle. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 83. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. Patchy drizzle developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning with patchy drizzle. Partly cloudy in the afternoon with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes late in the day. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 85. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph with cold frontal passage.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 56. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little cooler and less humid. High 76. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 78. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a cold front passing after midnight. Low 56.
Southerly winds shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 74. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY….  Mostly Sunny. High 76. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 9 April 2014 through Tuesday / 15 April 2014…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (2 April)………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (2 April)…………………………………… 7:51 pm
Sunrise Thursday (3 April)……………………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset Thursday (3 April)………………………………………. 7:51 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 2 April 2014

…. Muggy Conditions ….
…. Widely Scattered Rain Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Today into Tomorrow ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow ….

On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure /1022mb/ is situated over the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean east of Florida. A low pressure area /1008mb/ is over southeastern Colorado. A warm front extends eastward from the low through southern Missouri. A developing cold front extends northwestward from the low through Colorado and Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over the northwestern area of the USA from Idaho southwestward into central California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

Southerly surface winds continue to bring low level moisture to the area on this Wednesday.
Late night and early morning low cloudiness along with associated patchy drizzle can be expected again tomorrow morning.

Through tomorrow, as our atmosphere grows a little more unstable, we’ll see slightly better rain shower and thunderstorm chances locally. Coverage is expected.. at best.. to be widely scattered across our area.

By late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, a cold front will surge southeastward across the area. We could see a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area. Surface high pressure.. marked by drier and cooler air.. will settle southward across our area for Friday and into the weekend.

A more active upper air pattern will eject several disturbances over the area back over the cooler air by the weekend which will keep overrunning cloud cover a little more than you might expect following a cold frontal passage. At this time, I will not include rain chances but will continue to monitor.

It looks like another cold front will move through the area by early next Monday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium through tomorrow through the weekend (the cold frontal timing late Thursday night and cloud/rain chances for the forecast period being the primary issue). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Monday and Tuesday.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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