Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 1 April 2014
…. Muggy Conditions ….
…. Widely Scattered to Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Mid/Late Week ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Thursday Night ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure /1020mb/ is situated over northern Florida. A low pressure area /1000mb/ is over the Great Lakes with a cold front extending south southwestward into Arkansas and north central Texas then back northwestward into New Mexico and Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… upper level low pressure disturbances are situated well off the northeastern US seaboard with another strong disturbance over the western Great Lakes. A third system is off the western coast of Oregon over the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 35 to 45 mph.
Southerly surface winds continue to bring low level moisture to the area.
Late night and early morning low cloudiness along with associated patchy drizzle and fog can be expected over the next few days.
By tomorrow into Thursday.. a dry line.. ushering in drier continental tropical air from northern Mexico and the southwestern part of our state.. will attempt to move eastward into the area. As that occurs and our atmosphere grows a little more unstable, we’ll see slightly better rain shower and thunderstorm chances locally. Coverage is expected.. at best.. to be widely scattered to scattered across our area.
By late Thursday night, a cold front will surge southeastward across the area. We could see a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area. Surface high pressure.. marked by drier and cooler air.. will settle southward across our area for Friday and into the weekend.
A more active upper air pattern will eject several disturbances over the area back over the cooler air by the weekend which will keep overrunning cloud cover a little more than you might expect following a cold frontal passage. As I mentioned yesterday, at this time, I will not include rain chances but will continue to monitor.
It looks like another cold front will move through the area by early next Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence for today and tonight is high. My forecast confidence falls back to medium by tomorrow and Thursday through the weekend (the cold frontal timing late Thursday night and cloud/rain chances for the forecast period being the primary issue).
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel