Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 2 April 2014
…. Muggy Conditions ….
…. Widely Scattered Rain Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Today into Tomorrow ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure /1022mb/ is situated over the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean east of Florida. A low pressure area /1008mb/ is over southeastern Colorado. A warm front extends eastward from the low through southern Missouri. A developing cold front extends northwestward from the low through Colorado and Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over the northwestern area of the USA from Idaho southwestward into central California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
Southerly surface winds continue to bring low level moisture to the area on this Wednesday.
Late night and early morning low cloudiness along with associated patchy drizzle can be expected again tomorrow morning.
Through tomorrow, as our atmosphere grows a little more unstable, we’ll see slightly better rain shower and thunderstorm chances locally. Coverage is expected.. at best.. to be widely scattered across our area.
By late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, a cold front will surge southeastward across the area. We could see a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area. Surface high pressure.. marked by drier and cooler air.. will settle southward across our area for Friday and into the weekend.
A more active upper air pattern will eject several disturbances over the area back over the cooler air by the weekend which will keep overrunning cloud cover a little more than you might expect following a cold frontal passage. At this time, I will not include rain chances but will continue to monitor.
It looks like another cold front will move through the area by early next Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium through tomorrow through the weekend (the cold frontal timing late Thursday night and cloud/rain chances for the forecast period being the primary issue). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Monday and Tuesday.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel