TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 18 April 2014

TODAY….  Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 78. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. High 79. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 25 April 2014 through Thursday / 1 May 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 April)………………………………….. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (18 April)…………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise Saturday (19 April)………………………………………. 6:59 am
Sunset Saturday (19 April)……………………………………….. 8:01 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Friday / 18 April 2014

…. A Mix of Clouds and Sunshine for this Friday ….
…. A Passing Low Pressure Disturbance with Rain Chances over the Weekend ….
…. More Sunshine with Warmer Temperatures for Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area /1021mb/ extends from northeast Texas into southeastern Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper air disturbance is off the southwestern Pacific coast of southern California. Another disturbance.. the one that moved overhead of our area yesterday.. is over the lower Mississippi valley. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

With the surface high pressure to our northeast, we’re seeing a more east northeasterly surface wind continue across the area. As the high pressure area moves eastward, though, we’ll see a return south southeasterly winds by late tonight into tomorrow.

As clouds break overhead today, we’ll see afternoon high temperatures warming back to seasonal averages.

By tomorrow into Sunday, the low pressure disturbance.. off the southern California coast..  will move over the central plains creating atmospheric lift across Texas as it moves west-to-east to our north. Although the rain chances aren’t that high locally, we will see widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for late tomorrow through tomorrow night into Sunday.

We’ll see a return to more sunshine.. with a partly cloudy sky and even warmer temperatures.. for the first half of next week.

Another cold front.. in the longer range guidance.. is forecast to move southeastward toward our area by next Friday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today through tonight.. then falling back to medium for the weekend (reference the increase in clouds and any rain chances). My confidence rises back to high to very high for the first half of next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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