Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by

Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 17 April 2014

…. Increased Humidity and Clouds ….
…. A Passing Low Pressure Disturbance with Rain Chances over the Weekend ….
…. More Sunshine with Warmer Temperatures for Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from the western Great Lakes into northern Oklahoma and into west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the central USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.

With the surface high pressure now over the northeastern USA, east southeasterly surface winds continue across the area. This will continue through tomorrow into tomorrow night before becoming more south southeasterly for the weekend. We’re already seeing the increased cloud cover.. increased humidity and even some slim rain chances today into tonight as an upper air low pressure disturbance moves over the area.

By the weekend, a stronger low pressure disturbance will move across the area creating atmospheric lift as it moves through. Although the rain chances aren’t that high, we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for late Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday.

We’ll see a return to more sunshine.. with a partly cloudy sky and warmer temperatures.. for the first half of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through tonight.. then is high to very high for tomorrow and tomorrow night. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for the weekend (reference the increase in clouds and any rain chances). My confidence rises back to high to very high for the first half of next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel