TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 25 November 2014

…. A Dry Stable Fall Weather Pattern ….
…. A Weak Reinforcing Cold Front Due Early Thanksgiving Morning ….
…. Cloud Increase by the Weekend into Early Next Week ….

On this Tuesday morning…. high pressure continues over the eastern half of Texas with another high pressure area centered over western Colorado. A weak trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends from central Oklahoma southwestward into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a large deep area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay south southwestward into Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly 45 to 55 mph.

In the wake of the cold front that moved through the area on Sunday night.. surface high pressure has settled southward into the southern plains and Texas. This is maintaining a dry and stable fall weather pattern across the area with temperatures a little below seasonal averages.

Little change is seen over the next few days as surface high pressure moves to the east of the area and a southerly surface wind return to the area.

Current forecasts suggest that a weak cold front will move southward into Texas by late tomorrow afternoon into early Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. The air mass, in advance of the front, will be too dry and stable for any sensible weather other than perhaps a bit of a wind shift.

In the wake of that front, surface winds will return by Friday and through the weekend and into next week. Low level moisture will be on the increase with an associated increase in cloud cover. At this point, I am not including a mentioning any precipitation in my forecast.

Other than the weak front early Thursday, I do not expect any other frontal passages through the early part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Special Briefing….

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
600am CT – Saturday / 22 November 2014

… Threat of Severe Thunderstorms and Heavier Rain Today into Tonight ….

There is little change in my weather thoughts from my last statement on Thursday.

A strong upper level low pressure storm system and associated Pacific cold front
will cross our area today into tonight. As these systems move into a moist and
increasingly unstable air mass, dynamic atmospheric lift will continue to produce
additional rain shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. The system will
pass through the area by the early and mid evening hours tonight with the threat of
severe thunderstorms and heavier rain ending.

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center continues the risk of severe thunderstorms
for today across our area today into tonight with the potential of some hail and strong
gusty thunderstorm winds. Overall, there appears to be a slightly lower risk of severe
thunderstorms than 4 to 48 hours ago but we still need to be weather aware.

Please note that frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning will occur with any thunderstorms
that do develop.

Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is suggesting upwards of 3/4
to 1 1/2 inches of rain locally by early Sunday with isolated totals in excess of 2
inches in some areas. I do not expect widespread flooding conditions although some
urban and small stream flooding is possible with some low water crossings potentially
affected.

Please continue to be weather aware and listen for later watches, advisories and
warnings that the NWS/Storm Prediction Center as well as the NWS/Austin-San Antonio
might find necessary to issue over the  next  12 to 18 hours.

tk