Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
600am CT – Saturday / 22 November 2014

… Threat of Severe Thunderstorms and Heavier Rain Today into Tonight ….

There is little change in my weather thoughts from my last statement on Thursday.

A strong upper level low pressure storm system and associated Pacific cold front
will cross our area today into tonight. As these systems move into a moist and
increasingly unstable air mass, dynamic atmospheric lift will continue to produce
additional rain shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. The system will
pass through the area by the early and mid evening hours tonight with the threat of
severe thunderstorms and heavier rain ending.

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center continues the risk of severe thunderstorms
for today across our area today into tonight with the potential of some hail and strong
gusty thunderstorm winds. Overall, there appears to be a slightly lower risk of severe
thunderstorms than 4 to 48 hours ago but we still need to be weather aware.

Please note that frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning will occur with any thunderstorms
that do develop.

Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is suggesting upwards of 3/4
to 1 1/2 inches of rain locally by early Sunday with isolated totals in excess of 2
inches in some areas. I do not expect widespread flooding conditions although some
urban and small stream flooding is possible with some low water crossings potentially

Please continue to be weather aware and listen for later watches, advisories and
warnings that the NWS/Storm Prediction Center as well as the NWS/Austin-San Antonio
might find necessary to issue over the  next  12 to 18 hours.