Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 20 November 2014

…. Warmer Temperatures, More Clouds and Rain Chances by Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. Stormy Weather Due Going into the Weekend ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Late Saturday Night/Early Sunday Morning ….

On this Thursday morning…. high pressure continues to move eastward from the southeastern USA. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends from southeastern Kansas southwestward across western Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a large area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the eastern half of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay south southeastward to the northeastern USA. Another strong upper level low pressure storm system is approaching the Pacific northwestern USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

As south southeasterly surface winds continue to increase, humidity and clouds will increase. There is a slim chance of rain or rain showers in the areas as early as today.

With the approach of a dynamic upper air low pressure disturbance and surface cold front by late tomorrow into Saturday night, enough atmospheric instability and lift will develop for the possibility of rain showers and even stronger thunderstorms.

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a marginal to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for areas to our west for late Friday into Friday night with the risk more overhead and into southeast Texas for Saturday and shifting eastward thereafter. Large hail.. damaging thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes are possible.

Guidance continues to suggest potential rainfall amounts to 1 to 2 inches across our area with this weather system.

As the cold front passes late Saturday night… breezy and drier air will once again build into the area from the west and northwest with clearing skies.

A second cold front will move through the area by Sunday evening with cooler temperatures following for Sunday night and into the new week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very tonight through the next seven days.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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