Thursday / 13 September 2018 Update….

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Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 13 September 2018

… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continuing …
… Rain Chances Tomorrow into Saturday …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a dissipating stationary front extends northeastward from deep south Texas along the Texas coast into southern Louisiana. Surface high pressure is located over the St. Lawrence River Valley of the northeastern USA into eastern Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are northeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly eastward from western Canada into the Pacific northwest and intermountain west. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the northwestern Mexico as well as along the mid Atlantic seaboard of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are light.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

With the dissipating stationary front still sitting along the Texas coast in combination with the approaching area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico, a moist and unstable air mass will, over the next few days, produce scattered to numerous rain shower and thunderstorm activity for south central Texas. Heavier rainfall is possible.. especially south of Austin.. and localized flooding is possible Friday into Saturday.

As the result of cloud cover and areas of precipitation, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages.

I expect our air mass will become more stable once again by early into mid parts of next week with increased sunshine and lowering rain chances.

Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 13 September 2018

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 87. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Heavy rainfall at times. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 86. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Heavy rainfall at times. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Heavy rainfall at times. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 84. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain early decreasing to 50% by midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 88. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 91. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 20 September 2018 through Wednesday / 26 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13Sep)………………………………………. 7:14 am
Sunset this evening (13Sep)………………………………………… 7:38 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14Sep)…………………………………………… 7:15 am
Sunset tomorrow (14Sep)……………………………………………. 7:37 pm

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
 Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
 255pm CT – Wednesday / 12 September 2018
… All Interests Along the Texas Coast and Inland Should Continue to Closely Monitor the Forecast …
 … NWS/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Meteorologists Continue their 70% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Development for the Disturbed Area of Weather Through Friday …

Something to keep in mind, though…
Even if the system in the western Gulf gets no better organized, as additional moisture and this disturbance overall moves northwestward toward the Texas coast, a weakening stationary front along the coast will likely drift back northwest and act as a focus for potential excessive rainfall amounts over Texas mainly in areas to the south and southwest of Austin. However, until we know exactly how this system develops further (and IF it does) and exactly where  it goes, all areas of south, southeast and south central Texas should remain in close touch with forecast information. It’s in my thought that our area of Texas could receive 1 to 3 inches of rain between now and the end of the weekend with isolated heavier totals especially in areas south and southwest of Austin.

Over the coming days, please keep in mind… “Turn Around.. Don’t Drown.”

 Here is the latest NHC graphics and discussion as of 3pm today…

” Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday, before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.”


 Bottom Line.. continue to watch the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center updates as well as the latest forecast information from our local NWS offices
(NWS Austin-San Antonio  www.weather.gov/ewx   ..as well as
 NWS-Houston/Galveston  www.weather.gov/hgx )
I’ll continue to keep you advised..
 Troy