Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
120pm CT – Tuesday / 11 September 2018

… All Interests Along the Texas Coast and Inland Should Closely Monitor the Forecast …
… NWS/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Meteorologists Increase the Chance of Tropical
Cyclone Development Through the Remainder of the Week …

Here is the latest NHC graphics and discussion…

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Troy's Bottom Line.. now is the time to begin watching the latest information from the 
NWS/National Hurricane Center updates as well as the latest forecast information from
your local NWS offices (NWS Austin-San Antonio  www.weather.gov/ewx   ..as well as
NWS-Houston/Galveston  www.weather.gov/hgx )


I'll continue to keep you advised..
Troy