Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 12 September 2018
… Unsettled Weather Pattern Continuing …
… Rain Chances Continuing Before Increasing Friday into Saturday …
… Continuing to Watch the Southern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends northeastward from deep south Texas along the Texas coast into southern Louisiana.. central Mississippi.. and central Alabama. Surface high pressure is located over the St. Lawrence River Valley of the northeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving eastward from western Canada into the Pacific northwest. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the northwestern Mexico as well as along the mid Atlantic seaboard of the USA. A weak area of upper level low pressure is centered over eastern Texas and the eastern parts of the southern plains. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are north northwesterly 25 to 30 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
With the weakening stationary front still sitting along the Texas coast, a moist and unstable air mass will, over the next few days, produce scattered on-and-off rain shower and thunderstorm activity for south central Texas.
As the result of cloud cover and areas of precipitation, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages.
The area of disturbed weather has moved northwestward into the south central Gulf of Mexico north northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Our colleagues at the NWS/National Hurricane Center say the system has become more poorly organized over the last 12 hours as it continues moving northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas coast.
While there are no “whats, whys and wheres” or even “if” at this point, the NWS/National Hurricane Center has a recently decreased to 60% the chance of tropical development as the system continues to move northwestward through the western Gulf of Mexico and the toward the Texas coast.
At this point, I’m going to stick with a mostly cloudy sky and increased rain showers/ thunderstorm activity, with an associated lightning risk, for late week into the weekend.
Heavier rainfall is possible.. especially south of Austin.. and localized flooding is possible Friday into Saturday.
It should be noted that this continues to be a lower than normal confidence forecast until we can resolve whether the tropical system will get better developed and, then, of course, where it goes and its timing. I will continue to monitor this closely.
Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 12 September 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 87. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 87. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 86. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 89. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 91. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 19 September 2018 through Tuesday / 25 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12Sep)………………………………………. 7:14 am
Sunset this evening (12Sep)………………………………………… 7:40 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13Sep)…………………………………………… 7:14 am
Sunset tomorrow (13Sep)……………………………………………. 7:38 pm