*** Rain Chances Return with Some 1 Inch Totals Possible *** (Tu/21Jan2020)

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Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 21 January 2020 ….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

.. Rain Chances Increasing Overnight Tonight into Tomorrow ..

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

(1) A broad upper level low pressure system and associated surface cold front will move through Texas over the next two days with good rain chances. With daytime high temperatures below average, upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is possible.

(2) In the wake of the mid week system, a drier and more stable weather pattern with abundant sunshine is expected by Thursday afternoon and continuing through most of the weekend with temperatures rising back to above seasonal averages.

(3) Clouds will increase a bit by late Sunday into early Monday with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance but any precipitation should remain along the coast and Texas coastal plains to our distant south and southeast.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Tuesday / 21 January 2020

TODAY…. Partly cloudy through the morning with clouds increasing and thickening for the midday and afternoon hours. High 58. Calm winds becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with light rain showers developing by 9amwith rain area wide after midnight. A 30% chance of rain increasing to above 70% after midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.20″. Low 43. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 90%chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″ to 0.75″.
High 54. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and rain showers and scattered thunderstorms before midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain before 10pm decreasing to 30% after midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average an additional 0.25″. Low 49. East southeasterly wind becoming calm late.

THURSDAY…. Decreasing clouds early, as a cold front passes, becoming partly cloudy by mid and late morning. High 65. Wind becoming north northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 30s in outlying and low lying areas to 42 in the city. North northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 64. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 48. Light southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 49. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Tuesday / 28 January 2020 through Monday / 03 February 2020…
Temperatures… Near Average   
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 January)…………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (21 January)…………………………………….. 5:58 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 January)……………………………………….. 7:26 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 January)………………………………………… 5:59 pm

** Severe Thunderstorm Risk Later Today into Tonight ** (10Jan2020)

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ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
915am CT – Friday / 10 January 2020

… Be Weather Aware …
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk Late This Afternoon into Tonight …

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema06_swody1.png
Graphic Courtesy NWS/Storm Prediction Center

There is little change in my forecast thoughts from yesterday’s email.

I am still thinking that we need to watch the 4pm to 12 midnight time frame today into tonight.. with western areas coming earlier in that window while eastern areas extend later in the time frame.

Main risks locally.. strong, potentially damaging, straight line thunderstorm winds in excess of 60 mph along with larger hail. The tornado risk will be mainly in areas north through northeast and east of the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor. However, we need to watch locally for any discrete supercell thunderstorms (storms that develop by themselves away from other storms in the expected line of storms or around breaks/bows/notches in the line of storms).. these thunderstorms, especially in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor, could become
tornadic.

Given the progressive (quick forward movement) of the system, rainfall should be limited to 1/4″ to 1/2″ with isolated higher totals to 1 to 2 inches in areas east of the IH35 corridor.

Again, I strongly encourage everyone to be weather aware over the next 18 hours. Borrowing from my colleague, Dr. Kevin Kloesel at the University of Oklahoma, “HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.” Have a weather safety plan established in advance and read through the reminders below as it regards weather terminology and ways to get weather information (I’ve added WarnCentralTexas.Org if you’re not already signed up for their alerts).

I’ll continuing to monitor..
tk

Reminders…
I encourage everyone to be weather aware. Know, in advance, the difference between a
NWS issued WATCH, ADVISORY and WARNING.

Always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. sign up for alerts at WarnCentralTexas.org at .. https://warncentraltexas.org/alerts/
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..