Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

** Severe Thunderstorm Risk Later Today into Tonight ** (10Jan2020)

by

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
915am CT – Friday / 10 January 2020

… Be Weather Aware …
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk Late This Afternoon into Tonight …

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema06_swody1.png
Graphic Courtesy NWS/Storm Prediction Center

There is little change in my forecast thoughts from yesterday’s email.

I am still thinking that we need to watch the 4pm to 12 midnight time frame today into tonight.. with western areas coming earlier in that window while eastern areas extend later in the time frame.

Main risks locally.. strong, potentially damaging, straight line thunderstorm winds in excess of 60 mph along with larger hail. The tornado risk will be mainly in areas north through northeast and east of the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor. However, we need to watch locally for any discrete supercell thunderstorms (storms that develop by themselves away from other storms in the expected line of storms or around breaks/bows/notches in the line of storms).. these thunderstorms, especially in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor, could become
tornadic.

Given the progressive (quick forward movement) of the system, rainfall should be limited to 1/4″ to 1/2″ with isolated higher totals to 1 to 2 inches in areas east of the IH35 corridor.

Again, I strongly encourage everyone to be weather aware over the next 18 hours. Borrowing from my colleague, Dr. Kevin Kloesel at the University of Oklahoma, “HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.” Have a weather safety plan established in advance and read through the reminders below as it regards weather terminology and ways to get weather information (I’ve added WarnCentralTexas.Org if you’re not already signed up for their alerts).

I’ll continuing to monitor..
tk

Reminders…
I encourage everyone to be weather aware. Know, in advance, the difference between a
NWS issued WATCH, ADVISORY and WARNING.

Always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. sign up for alerts at WarnCentralTexas.org at .. https://warncentraltexas.org/alerts/
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..