…. Rains Diminish as Upper Air Moves Eastward Across Texas ….
…. A Strong Cold Front.. Dry in Nature.. To Move Across The Area Early Thursday ….

On this Monday… a cold front extends from northern Mexico into a south Texas surface low around Corpus Christi. A stationary front extends from the surface low into southeast Texas.. central Louisiana and central and northern Mississippi. A dome of surface high pressure area was to our northwest over the intermountain west. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are north northwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather deep trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from Kansas and Missouri into southwest Texas where there is a eastward moving closed area of upper level low. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are strong southwesterly.

The upper level low pressure area.. over southwest Texas.. will move eastward over the next 24 hours with clouds and precipitation tapering off as the system moves off to the east northeast of the local area.

With the passage of the low by tomorrow, I expect clearing with warmer temperatures into Wednesday.

A strong cold front appears in the offing.. again, it looks like a dry system.. for the predawn hours on Thursday morning with much cooler air moving into the area for the latter part of next week.

Some of this morning’s model guidance hint at increasing clouds and renewed rain chances by late Saturday into Sunday and Monday of next week, but, at this time, I will keep us in a dry weather pattern until the models start agreeing on this forecast.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of the week (after tonight) is high to very high. My forecast confidence is medium for early into mid parts of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles .. most likely in the evening hours.  Lows around 40. North northwesterly winds 8 to 15 mph.  For tomorrow, mostly sunny and warmer. Highs will make it into the 60s. North northwesterly wind 10 to 18 mph.

Have a goo Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

605pm CT – Sunday / 8 January 2012

…. Upper Level Low Pressure Storm System Poised to Move Across Texas ….
…. Beneficial Rainfall Event Expected over the Next 36 Hours ….

On this Sunday evening, a strong eastward moving upper air low pressure storm system is located
over northern Mexico.. southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico west of El Paso. You
can see this system clearly by examining water vapor satellite imagery through this link:
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wximagery/500mbwv.html

As the system approaches, abundant atmospheric moisture has moved into place across Texas.
It should be noted that a warm front is situated in the Texas coastal plains with gulf moisture riding
back northwestward over the front in a typical overrunning pattern. With the upper air low pressure
storm system slated to move from west to east overhead later tonight into Monday,  I expect
widespread rain.. rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms across the area. Given the colder
vertical temperature profile of the passing upper level low, some small hail could fall from the stronger
thunderstorms late tonight through tomorrow.

Current NWS rainfall guidance suggests, in general, one to two inches of rain across the area over
the next 36 hours or so. This will be a very beneficial rainfall event with very limited, mainly urban and
street flooding, impacts expected. NWS rainfall forecast data (1 to 5 day forecast) can be found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95ewbg.gif

The upper level low pressure system will complete its move across the area by later tomorrow night with
rain chances decreasing. Skies will rapidly clear by sunrise into midday on Tuesday.

Please note that we are expecting a stronger cold frontal passage.. no precipitation expected.. in the
early morning hours (predawn) on Thursday. Outlying areas will likely see overnight freezes later this
week as colder surface high pressure builds into Texas from the Rockies.

Have a good week ahead,
Troy