Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/6Jan2012)

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Cold Front Due Saturday Morning ….
…. An Upper Level Storm System To Move Overhead Early Next Week ….
…. Strong Cold Front Due Next Wednesday Night ….

On this Friday… a dome of surface high pressure area is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure from central Kansas southwestward into west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Another high pressure area is over the four corners region of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah. A southeastward moving cold front extends from central Kansas into southeastern Colorado. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal (west to east) wind pattern continues across the area with a area of upper level low pressure embedded within that wind flow over east Texas. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over Texas continue light west northwesterly across our area.

A dry and more stable surface weather pattern continues over the area with some mid and high clouds present making up a partly cloudy sky.

With the high pressure now east of the area, we’ve seen a return to a south southwesterly surface wind flow with a few more clouds showing up along with slightly increased humidity.

A cold front.. again, it appears, a dry one.. is expected early tomorrow morning with a partly cloudy sky late Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday.

Forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level jet stream pattern will shift a bit with a another stronger upper level low moving across the southwestern USA and then slowly across our area by late Sunday through Tuesday. While the guidance still isn’t in complete agreement, I still think that an overrunning pattern will likely develop with clouds and a much better chance of rain by Sunday night into early next week.  NWS rainfall forecasts continue in the 1 to 1 1/2 inch range so it appears that we’re in store for some beneficial rainfall early next week.

With the passage of the upper level low on Tuesday, I expect partial clearing with warmer temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday.

A strong cold front appears in the offing.. again, it looks like a dry system.. for sometime early next Wednesday evening with much cooler air moving into the area for the latter part of next week.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of the week and through the weekend continues be high to very high. My forecast confidence has risen to medium to high for early into mid parts of next week as it regards the track and the potential effect of the passing upper level low pressure storm system. I’m back to high confidence regarding the cold front next Wednesday evening and the weather to follow for late next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph. For tomorrow, partly cloudy. Highs will make it into the 60s to near 70 with a northwesterly wind in the wake of an early morning cold front.

Have a good Friday night and a safe weekend…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel