Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/9Jan2012)

…. Rains Diminish as Upper Air Moves Eastward Across Texas ….
…. A Strong Cold Front.. Dry in Nature.. To Move Across The Area Early Thursday ….

On this Monday… a cold front extends from northern Mexico into a south Texas surface low around Corpus Christi. A stationary front extends from the surface low into southeast Texas.. central Louisiana and central and northern Mississippi. A dome of surface high pressure area was to our northwest over the intermountain west. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are north northwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather deep trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from Kansas and Missouri into southwest Texas where there is a eastward moving closed area of upper level low. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are strong southwesterly.

The upper level low pressure area.. over southwest Texas.. will move eastward over the next 24 hours with clouds and precipitation tapering off as the system moves off to the east northeast of the local area.

With the passage of the low by tomorrow, I expect clearing with warmer temperatures into Wednesday.

A strong cold front appears in the offing.. again, it looks like a dry system.. for the predawn hours on Thursday morning with much cooler air moving into the area for the latter part of next week.

Some of this morning’s model guidance hint at increasing clouds and renewed rain chances by late Saturday into Sunday and Monday of next week, but, at this time, I will keep us in a dry weather pattern until the models start agreeing on this forecast.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of the week (after tonight) is high to very high. My forecast confidence is medium for early into mid parts of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles .. most likely in the evening hours.  Lows around 40. North northwesterly winds 8 to 15 mph.  For tomorrow, mostly sunny and warmer. Highs will make it into the 60s. North northwesterly wind 10 to 18 mph.

Have a goo Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel