Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Updated Thursday Afternoon/5 January 2012)

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Saturday Morning ….
…. An Upper Level Storm System To Move Overhead Early Next Week ….

On this Thursday… a dome of surface high pressure area is located over Colorado and Utah with a weak ridge southeastward into Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are light southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada across the eastern half of the USA. Within that trough and its counterclockwise flow, an upper level low pressure disturbance is moving east southeastward across northeastern Mexico west of Brownsville. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over Texas continue light west southwesterly across our area.

A dry and more stable surface weather pattern continues over the area with some high clouds otherwise a mostly clear sky.

As the high pressure moves east, we’ll see a return to a southerly surface wind flow by tomorrow with a few more clouds showing up along with increased humidity.

Another cold front.. again, it appears, a dry one.. is expected early Saturday morning with a partly cloudy sky late Saturday and Saturday night into early Sunday.

Longer range guidance continues to suggest that the upper level jet stream pattern will shift a bit with a another stronger upper level low moving across the southwestern USA and then slowly across our area by late Sunday through Tuesday. While the guidance isn’t in complete agreement and diverges in thought as far as timing and the exact track of the upper level storm system, I am still thinking that an overrunning pattern will likely develop with clouds and a much better chance of rain by Sunday night into early next week.  NWS rainfall forecasts have risen considerably since yesterday; today they are estimating that we could receive upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain in the early part of next week with heavier rainfall totals to our distant east over east Texas. I’m not sure I buy these higher rainfall totals just yet, but, nevertheless, some beneficial rainfall is likely early next week.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of the week and through the weekend continues be high to very high. My forecast confidence drops to low to medium for early into mid parts of next week as it regards the track and the potential effect of a passing upper level low pressure storm system.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph. For tomorrow, partly cloudy. Highs will make it into the 70s with a southerly wind increasing.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Troy Kimmel