Updated  130pm Wednesday / 25 January 2012

…. Upper Level Low Pressure Storm System and Associated Cold Front Move East ….
…. Rain Chances Diminish and Cooler Temperatures Take Over Again ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Pattern Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday… surface low pressure and the associated cold front has moved eastward into east Texas extending southward along the middle and upper Texas coast into far south Texas over the lower Rio Grande Valley. Surface high pressure is building in from the four corners region. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a northwesterly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the strong eastward moving upper air low pressure area is over Del Rio along the Rio Grande River.  As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate to strong southerly but should become more northwesterly by tonight as the low pressure area moves east of our area.

As the upper air storm passes overhead and to the moves east of our area by later today into tonight, we’ll see only a slight decrease in clouds with even a few sprinkles still possible in the overnight hours. By tomorrow, clouds will break and we’ll get back to some sunshine for the area. Cooler air has moved southeastward into the area in the wake of the east Texas cold front.

Drier and more stable atmospheric conditions will prevail with more abundant sunshine Friday into the weekend. In the continuing progressive weather pattern.. another cold front will quickly pass through the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Limited moisture return and limited instability ahead of this second cold front will mean no mention of rain as the system passes. It’ll be a little cooler over the weekend also with abundant sunshine.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday night’s cold front..  will move east of the area by Sunday with a south southeasterly surface wind returning and clouds increasing a bit into the new week.

My forecast confidence today through the weekend is very high. My forecast confidence for Monday into Tuesday of next week is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see clouds lingering with a few isolated sprinkles possible. Lows in the 40s with northerly wind. For tomorrow, slowly decreasing clouds with a partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s with northeasterly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Updated  130pm Tuesday / 24 January 2012

…. Stormy Weather Over the Next 24 to 36 Hour Period ….
…. Beneficial Rainfall of 1 to 2 Inches Likely with Isolated Heavier Amounts ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Pattern Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday… a warm frontal system extends southwestward  extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeastern Louisiana west southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and then onshore into south Texas. Low pressure is deepening.. in response to an approaching strong upper level storm system.. over west Texas.  As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a easterly/southeasterly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is moving eastward through southern Arizona.. southwestern New Mexico and northern Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate to strong southwesterly.

We’ve seeing a quick return to a southeasterly wind and low level moisture. This will be “helped along” by the deepening upper air trough west of El Paso as it moves eastward. As the low pressure area approaches from the west and the front off the Texas coast  and over south Texas returns quickly northward as a warm front and as atmospheric instability and lift increases, rain.. rain showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous today into tonight and tomorrow. This system is quite dynamic and very beneficial rainfall is likely.. upwards of 1 to 2 inches in general with isolated totals to 3 inches along with the possibility of larger hail from the stronger thunderstorms especially later tonight into early tomorrow with severe thunderstorms possible.

Once the upper air storm passes overhead and to the moves east of our area and then a cold front moves through, by midday tomorrow, we’ll see rain chances decrease even though clouds and slim rain chances may linger a bit into tomorrow night. Cooler air will move southward into the area in the wake of the front with drier weather and the return to sunshine Thursday and Friday.

In the progressive weather pattern.. another cold front will quickly pass through the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Limited moisture return and limited instability ahead of this second cold front will mean no mention of rain as the system passes.

Surface high pressure will build southeastward from the Rockies for Saturday but will move east of the area by Sunday with a south southeasterly surface wind returning and clouds increasing a bit.

My forecast confidence today through Thursday is high to very high. My forecast confidence for Thursday into Sunday is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see rain.. rain showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain possible along with some hail in the stronger thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s with southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, a cloudy sky with rain shower chances decreasing. Highs in the 60s with southeasterly wind turning northwesterly.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel