Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/20Jan2012)

Updated  130pm Friday / 20 January 2012

…. A Highly Progressive Weather Pattern with Three Fronts over Next 7 Days ….
…. Warmer Temps Friday will Turning Cooler with First Front Early Tomorrow ….
…. Clouds by Early Next Week with Third Expected Cold Frontal Passage ….

On this Friday… a weakening stationary front extends from northern Mississippi into northeastern Texas west northwestward into the Texas panhandle and eastern Colorado. Surface high pressure is over Florida and the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean. Broad surface low pressure is over west Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, south southwesterly wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the upper level wind flow has flattened again with a mostly zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow over the USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are light to moderate westerly.

Enough low level moisture returned over the last 24 hours so that we’ve seen pretty extensive low cloudiness and fog on this Friday as the south southwesterly surface wind flow continues. We’ll see enough moisture return for some late night and early morning low cloudiness again late tonight before a cold front moves through the area about sunrise Saturday.

Cooler air will filter southward into the area in the wake of the front tomorrow morning.. but in a rather progressive (fast moving) weather pattern.. the high pressure will move east with a southerly wind and return low level moisture evident by Sunday.

Another cold front will quickly pass through the area early Monday with little sensible weather. Another cold front.. associated with a more dynamic low pressure area and with more moisture and instability ahead of it.. will give us a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday into Tuesday night as the third front passes. Cooler and drier air will likely move into the area from the west northwest in the wake of the front Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week and into the weekend is very high. My forecast confidence.. for Sunday into Monday.. is high with my confidence falling back to medium with the rain chances and third cold frontal passage on Tuesday night (as it regards exact rain chances and frontal passage timing).

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear with low clouds after midnight. Lows in the 50s with light southwesterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny sky. Cooler and breezy. Highs will be in the 60s to near 70 with northerly wind 8 to 18 mph diminishing in the afternoon.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel