Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/25Jan2012)

Updated  130pm Wednesday / 25 January 2012

…. Upper Level Low Pressure Storm System and Associated Cold Front Move East ….
…. Rain Chances Diminish and Cooler Temperatures Take Over Again ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Pattern Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday… surface low pressure and the associated cold front has moved eastward into east Texas extending southward along the middle and upper Texas coast into far south Texas over the lower Rio Grande Valley. Surface high pressure is building in from the four corners region. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a northwesterly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the strong eastward moving upper air low pressure area is over Del Rio along the Rio Grande River.  As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate to strong southerly but should become more northwesterly by tonight as the low pressure area moves east of our area.

As the upper air storm passes overhead and to the moves east of our area by later today into tonight, we’ll see only a slight decrease in clouds with even a few sprinkles still possible in the overnight hours. By tomorrow, clouds will break and we’ll get back to some sunshine for the area. Cooler air has moved southeastward into the area in the wake of the east Texas cold front.

Drier and more stable atmospheric conditions will prevail with more abundant sunshine Friday into the weekend. In the continuing progressive weather pattern.. another cold front will quickly pass through the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Limited moisture return and limited instability ahead of this second cold front will mean no mention of rain as the system passes. It’ll be a little cooler over the weekend also with abundant sunshine.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday night’s cold front..  will move east of the area by Sunday with a south southeasterly surface wind returning and clouds increasing a bit into the new week.

My forecast confidence today through the weekend is very high. My forecast confidence for Monday into Tuesday of next week is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see clouds lingering with a few isolated sprinkles possible. Lows in the 40s with northerly wind. For tomorrow, slowly decreasing clouds with a partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s with northeasterly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel