Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/19Jan2012)

Updated  130pm Thursday / 19 January 2012

…. Southerly Winds Along with Warmer Temperatures Over Next Few Days ….
…. A Cold Front Still Due Early Saturday and Again Early Next Week ….
…. Clouds by Late in the Weekend with Rain Chances Late Weekend/Next Week ….

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is located well to our east over Alabama. A trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends southward from a surface low over southwestern Kansas into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, south southwesterly wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the most zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow over the USA has become more amplified with a trough.. or line of low pressure.. over the eastern half of the USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are light to moderate west northwesterly.

As the surface high to our east continues to moves eastward and low pressure deepens to our west, a south southwesterly surface wind flow continues. We’ll see enough moisture return for some late night and early morning low cloudiness tonight into early tomorrow.

Another cold front.. slightly stronger than I’ve thought.. moves across the area by early next Saturday but limited instability and moisture will keep the mention of rain out of the forecast. Cooler air will filter southward into the area in the wake of the front.. but in a rather progressive (fast moving) weather pattern.. the high pressure will move east with a southerly wind and return low level moisture evident by Sunday.

Another cold front will quickly pass through the area Monday with little sensible weather. Another cold front.. perhaps with more moisture and instability ahead of it.. will give us a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday into early Wednesday as the front passes. Slightly cooler and drier air will likely move into the area from the west northwest by later in the day Wednesday in the wake of the front.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week and into the weekend is very high. My forecast confidence.. for Sunday into Monday.. is back up to high with my confidence falling back to medium with the rain chances and third cold frontal passage on Wednesday (as it regards exact rain chances and frontal passage timing).

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear with low clouds after midnight. Lows in the 50s with light southerly wind. For tomorrow, some morning low clouds will give way to a mostly sunny sky. Highs will be back in the 70s to near 80 with south southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel