Updated 845am CDT Friday / 4 October 2013

…. Clouds and Humidity Prevail ….
…. A Strong Cold Front With a Chance of Rain Due Tomorrow….

On this Friday morning…. a high pressure area is over North Carolinas. A deepening trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from western Kansas and eastern  Colorado into west Texas. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from northeastern Kansas into a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado then southwestward through central New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low is over the western Wyoming.. northeastern Utah.. and northwestern Colorado with the associated broad trough.. or line of low pressure over the western third of the USA. An upper level high is situated over Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

Low level moisture continues in place with late night and early morning low cloudiness prevailing. The morning low clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine and above average temperatures today.

By tomorrow.. the upper air disturbance, to our northwest, will move to west to east to the north of the area and allow the cold front, over the Rockies, to surge through the area by afternoon tomorrow. We’ll continue to see enough low level moisture return for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight tonight through tomorrow as the front moves through our area. There could even be a few light post frontal rain showers into Saturday evening before skies clear. At this point, I’m going to hold with 1/4 inch rainfall totals with the passage of this system.

Once the front passes through, skies will clear with cooler temperatures and less humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

Tropical cyclone Karen with hurricane and tropical storm watches and some warnings continuing for the US gulf coast from west of the New Orleans area eastward across the Florida panhandle coast. This system will end up being well to the east of our local area into the southeastern USA. At this point, this system is not expected to affect Texas.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 3 October 2013

…. Clouds and Humidity Prevail ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front With a Chance of Rain Still Due on Saturday….

On this Thursday morning…. a high pressure area is over the western Carolinas and northeastern Georgia. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from east central Colorado through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A cold front extends southwestward from eastern Nebraska into east central Colorado then northwestern Colorado into Utah and southern Nevada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low is deepening over the western third of the USA. An upper level high is situated over Florida. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 20 to 25 mph.

With surface high pressure to our east, substantial low level moisture is in place with late night and early morning low cloudiness. This pattern will persist through tomorrow with morning low clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine and above average temperatures.

By late tomorrow night into Saturday.. the upper air disturbance, over the western third of the USA, will move to west to east to the north of the area and allow the cold front, over the Rockies, to move through the area by afternoon Saturday. This continues to be  slower than I earlier expected. We’ll continue to see enough low level moisture return for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the late Friday night to Saturday afternoon time period as the front moves through our area. However, I don’t expect the precipitation coverage and amounts that we saw this last weekend due to the fast forward movement of this stronger cold front. At this point, I’m going to 1/4 to 1/2 inch rainfall totals with the passage of this system.

Once the front passes through by Saturday afternoon, skies will clear with cooler temperatures and less humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

The system in the south central Gulf of Mexico has become tropical cyclone Karen with hurricane and tropical storm watches being issued for the US gulf coast from west of the New Orleans area eastward across the Florida panhandle coast. Current models suggest that this system will ultimately end up well to the east of our local area in the central and eastern Gulf and into the southeastern USA. At this point, this system is not expected to affect Texas.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel