Updated 845am CDT Monday / 30 September 2013
…. A Dry and Stable Start to the Week ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front With a Chance of Rain by Late Friday into Saturday ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends south southwestward from southeastern Missouri through Arkansas and into east Texas to along the Texas coast near Corpus Christi and Brownsville. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light and variable over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is over the eastern USA with an upper level high over northwestern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. Another upper level low pressure area is over British Columbia and northwestern Washington. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
As the front to the east to us weakens, our surface winds will become reestablished from the south and southeast by tonight into Tuesday. Even so, plenty of sunshine is expected through mid and late week with high temperatures warming back to above seasonal levels.
By Friday into Friday night.. another upper air disturbance will move to west to east to the north of the area and allow a stronger cold front to move through the area Friday night. I expect that we’ll see enough of a low level moisture return for widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the 6pm Friday to 6am Saturday time period. However, I don’t expect the precipitation coverage and amounts that we saw this last weekend due to the fast forward movement of the stronger cold front.
Once the front passes through by daybreak Saturday, skies will clear with cooler temperatures and less humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
The tropics are relatively quiet with a disturbed area of weather over the southwestern Caribbean Sea showing some potential development over the next few days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel