Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 1 October 2013
…. Low Level Moisture Makes A Return ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front With a Chance of Rain Still Due By Late Friday Night ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a high pressure area is over the western Carolinas and northeastern Georgia. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from Nebraska into northern Colorado and central Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southerly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal (west to east) upper level wind pattern is over the USA. An upper level high is over western Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are relatively light and variable.
With surface high pressure to our east, our surface winds have become south and southeasterly with a quick return of low level moisture having occurred overnight as evidenced by the patchy fog this morning. This pattern will persist over the next few days with morning low clouds and patchy fog giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine and above average temperatures.
By late Friday into Friday night.. another upper air disturbance will move to west to east to the north of the area and allow a stronger cold front to move through the area late Friday night. We’ll see enough low level moisture return for widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the 6pm Friday to 6am Saturday time period as the front moves through our area. However, I don’t expect the precipitation coverage and amounts that we saw this last weekend due to the fast forward movement of this stronger cold front.
Once the front passes through by daybreak Saturday, skies will clear with cooler temperatures and less humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
The tropics are relatively quiet with a disturbed area of weather over the southwestern Caribbean Sea showing potential development over the next few days. Current models suggest anything that does develop will ultimately end up well to the east of our local area in the central and eastern Gulf and into the southeastern USA.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel