Updated 845am CDT Friday / 4 October 2013
…. Clouds and Humidity Prevail ….
…. A Strong Cold Front With a Chance of Rain Due Tomorrow….
On this Friday morning…. a high pressure area is over North Carolinas. A deepening trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from western Kansas and eastern Colorado into west Texas. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from northeastern Kansas into a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado then southwestward through central New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low is over the western Wyoming.. northeastern Utah.. and northwestern Colorado with the associated broad trough.. or line of low pressure over the western third of the USA. An upper level high is situated over Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 15 to 25 mph.
Low level moisture continues in place with late night and early morning low cloudiness prevailing. The morning low clouds giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine and above average temperatures today.
By tomorrow.. the upper air disturbance, to our northwest, will move to west to east to the north of the area and allow the cold front, over the Rockies, to surge through the area by afternoon tomorrow. We’ll continue to see enough low level moisture return for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight tonight through tomorrow as the front moves through our area. There could even be a few light post frontal rain showers into Saturday evening before skies clear. At this point, I’m going to hold with 1/4 inch rainfall totals with the passage of this system.
Once the front passes through, skies will clear with cooler temperatures and less humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Tropical cyclone Karen with hurricane and tropical storm watches and some warnings continuing for the US gulf coast from west of the New Orleans area eastward across the Florida panhandle coast. This system will end up being well to the east of our local area into the southeastern USA. At this point, this system is not expected to affect Texas.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel