Updated 845am CST Friday / 22 November 2013
…. Blue Norther Plows Through Texas ….
…. Winter Storm Likely Developing Over Texas Over the Weekend ….
…. Overrunning Clouds / Precipitation with Much Colder Temperatures ….
On this Friday morning…. a southward moving cold front extends southwestward from western Tennessee into northern Louisiana across the Texas coast then westward into northern Mexico. Surface arctic high pressure is centered behind the front from Idaho east southeastward to over Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are gusty northerly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep low pressure disturbance is off the southern California coast. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are increasing southwesterly 25 to 35 mph.
The strong cold front.. ushering in much colder modified arctic air.. moved through the Austin area between 1 and 2 am this morning.
As the cold front moves offshore of the Texas coast, the strong upper air disturbance, off the southern California coast, will keep moisture overrunning the shallow wedge of much colder surface air with rain chances and clouds persisting through the weekend and even into next week as well. Temperatures are now much below average levels and will continue this way through the weekend and into next week. Given the coldness of the air, we’ll see wintry precipitation develop over the northern and western parts of the area.. over the Texas Hill Country.. over the next day or so. However, another disturbance, due by late Sunday and Sunday night and early Monday will produce the greatest chance of wintry precipitation deeper into the area.. perhaps into the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor. We’ll need to closely monitor the forecast.. and possible winter watches/advisories/warnings that may become necessary. I’ll keep you informed.
Latest guidance suggests that another upper air low pressure disturbance will move through the area next Tuesday and this will cause surface development of a low pressure off the Texas coast. As these systems move eastward, clouds will decrease and rain chances will drop from the forecast.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Moderate forecast confidence through tonight and Saturday.. then a low confidence forecast for Saturday night into Monday (with intensity of the cold air being the question and the real possibility that wintery precipitation may need to be considered). My confidence then increases to high for Tuesday into Thursday next week.
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel