Updated 845am CST Tuesday / 26 November 2013
…. Upper Air Low Pressure Storm System Finally Moves Eastward ….
…. Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Unfolds for Thanksgiving 2013 ….
…. A Slow Warm Up Over the Coming Days ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a surface low pressure area is moving eastward through the northern Gulf of Mexico south of the Louisiana coast. Another reinforcing surface cold front is ushering in another chilly area of surface high pressure from the plains states with the center of the first high pressure area.. that brought our colder air in last Friday.. is just off the east coast of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are picking up northerly once again across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep low pressure disturbance is moving east southeastward over our local area. As it moves more east southeastward of the local area.. the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are increasing north northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.
As the upper level low pressure storm system finally moves east of the area today and shifts our upper level winds more northerly, another reinforcing cold front will move southward through the area with another chilly area of surface high pressure from the plains to build into the area. As a result, clouds will break as the day proceeds giving way to dry and stable late fall weather pattern across the area.
The dry and stable weather pattern will continue mid through late week with plenty of sunshine due for Thanksgiving 2013. Although daytime high temperatures will warm a bit, with the return to sunshine, over the coming days, overnight lows will be colder with freezes likely in the overnight hours both tonight as well as Wednesday night especially in the outlying, low lying areas.
As this latest surface high moves east of the area, we’ll see the return of a south southeasterly surface wind by Thanksgiving Day with an increase in low level moisture and more clouds along with even warmer temperatures by the weekend into early next week. Enough moisture may be present for slim rain chances by early next week.
The latest forecast guidance suggests that another area of low pressure will strengthen in the Rockies by Tuesday with another batch of much colder air breaking southeastward out of Canada by the middle part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then a high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel