Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 2 September 2014

…. Little Change in Our Local Weather Pattern ….
…. Tropical Cyclone Dolly to Move Ashore From Southwest Gulf into Eastern Mexico ….

On this Tuesday morning…. high pressure is centered over the southeastern USA with a low pressure trough over west Texas. A weak stationary front extends southwestward from central Missouri into southeastern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle and northeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal.. that is, west to east.. upper level wind pattern continues over the northern and central USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending from western Hudson Bay into the northern Mississippi valley. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. extends over the southern USA from Georgia westward across Texas and then into the southwestern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are relatively light and variable at 10 to 20 mph.

The big weather news on this Tuesday is the naming of tropical cyclone Dolly that became a tropical storm earlier this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level high pressure area, over the southern USA, is steering this tropical system more westward toward the central coast of Mexico with a landfall expected before daybreak tomorrow. The system is far enough south of the area.. and the upper level high pressure above us is strong enough.. that there will be minimal effects locally.

Meanwhile, afternoon heat will combine with available low level moisture and limited atmospheric instability (the upper level high above is very stable!!) to give us isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening rain showers and thunderstorms over the area through tomorrow.

For the balance of the seven day forecast period.. Thursday into early next week.. it looks dry with a typical summer weather pattern prevailing. A cold front is forecast is move southward into north Texas by Saturday into Sunday but the front is expected, at this point, to remain north of our local area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tomorrow (reference any precipitation timing and amounts)… then very high tomorrow night through the balance of the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 29 August 2014

…. Weak Low Pressure Area Moving Westward Through Deep South Texas ….
…. The Chance of Precipitation Over the Next Several Days ….

On this Friday morning…. a weak low pressure area is over deep south Texas. Low pressure and a weak cold front extends south southwestward from western Kansas through west Texas into the southwestern area of Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward from the central plains into Texas. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are west southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.

The low pressure area.. over deep south Texas.. is moving westward and this, in combination with daytime heating, increased atmospheric instability as well as the weak front to our west.. will continue the chance of precipitation over south Texas today through tomorrow. As well, the counterclockwise circulation around the low will sweep more moist and unstable air into our area from the southeast. As a result, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will occur today into tomorrow. Gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning may accompany the thunderstorms. Increased clouds and expected precipitation will result in afternoon high temperatures being a few degrees lower over the next few days.

By tomorrow night into Sunday, upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will rebuild over the area with rain chances dropping completely from the forecast by Monday through the middle part of next week.

Initial indications are that another low pressure disturbance from the Gulf of Mexico may affect south Texas by the latter part of next week into the following weekend. At this point, I believe that and precipitation that does occur in Texas will be south of our area and I will not include and precipitation chances locally.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tomorrow (reference precipitation timing and amounts)… then very high tomorrow night through the balance of the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel