Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 28 August 2014
…. Weak Low Pressure Area Moving Westward from the Gulf into Deep South Texas ….
…. The Chance of Precipitation Going Up A Bit in the Coming Days ….
On this Thursday morning…. a weak low pressure area is over the western Gulf of Mexico east of Brownsville. Low pressure extends southward from western Kansas through west Texas into the southwestern area of Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is located from Texas northeastward into the Mississippi Valley. A trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward from eastern Idaho and western Wyoming into Utah. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable at 5 to 15 mph.
The low pressure area.. to the east of Brownsville.. is moving westward and will carry the brunt of the precipitation into south Texas today through tomorrow. However, the counterclockwise circulation around the low will sweep more moist and unstable air into our area from the southeast. As a result, isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today into tonight locally (mainly to our southeast) will increase to scattered by tomorrow into Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning may accompany the thunderstorms. Increased clouds and expected precipitation will result in afternoon high temperatures being a few degrees lower over the next few days.
By Saturday night into Sunday, upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will rebuild over the area with rain chances dropping completely from the forecast by Monday through the middle part of next week.
Initial indications are that another low pressure disturbance from the Gulf of Mexico may affect south Texas by the latter part of next week into the following weekend. It’s too early to call, but, rain chances may increase in areas especially to our south by next Friday into the following weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tomorrow (reference precipitation timing and amounts)… then high to very high tomorrow through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel