Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 19 August 2014
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Again Today ….
…. An Otherwise Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a weak cold front extends westward from northern Missouri westward into a low pressure area over eastern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is located to our southeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is located from Texas west/northwestward into the southern Rockies. A trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward along the California coast. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.
An upper air disturbance has continued to cause rain showers and thunderstorms to our west and southwest over the last 24 hours into the morning hours this morning. I still think that we’ll see this disturbance.. combining with daytime heating, low level moisture and instability.. to give us slim afternoon thunderstorm chances today into early tonight.
Rain chances will disappear after today as the overall dry and stable summer weather pattern continues as upper level high pressure restrengthens again over the area. Temperatures will be at or slightly above seasonal averages. This weather pattern will persist through late week into the weekend and the early part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through tomorrow (reference precipitation timing and amounts)… then very high tomorrow through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel