Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 2 September 2014

…. Little Change in Our Local Weather Pattern ….
…. Tropical Cyclone Dolly to Move Ashore From Southwest Gulf into Eastern Mexico ….

On this Tuesday morning…. high pressure is centered over the southeastern USA with a low pressure trough over west Texas. A weak stationary front extends southwestward from central Missouri into southeastern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle and northeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal.. that is, west to east.. upper level wind pattern continues over the northern and central USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending from western Hudson Bay into the northern Mississippi valley. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. extends over the southern USA from Georgia westward across Texas and then into the southwestern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are relatively light and variable at 10 to 20 mph.

The big weather news on this Tuesday is the naming of tropical cyclone Dolly that became a tropical storm earlier this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level high pressure area, over the southern USA, is steering this tropical system more westward toward the central coast of Mexico with a landfall expected before daybreak tomorrow. The system is far enough south of the area.. and the upper level high pressure above us is strong enough.. that there will be minimal effects locally.

Meanwhile, afternoon heat will combine with available low level moisture and limited atmospheric instability (the upper level high above is very stable!!) to give us isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening rain showers and thunderstorms over the area through tomorrow.

For the balance of the seven day forecast period.. Thursday into early next week.. it looks dry with a typical summer weather pattern prevailing. A cold front is forecast is move southward into north Texas by Saturday into Sunday but the front is expected, at this point, to remain north of our local area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tomorrow (reference any precipitation timing and amounts)… then very high tomorrow night through the balance of the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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