Updated 800am CT – Monday / 17 November 2014

…. Arctic Air Continues its Grip on Texas ….
…. Warmer Temperatures, More Clouds and Rain Chances by Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. arctic high pressure continues from Texas north northwestward into the northern and central Rockies and the intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay south southwestward to west of Lake Superior. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 70 to 80 mph.

Unseasonably cold temperatures continues across Texas as arctic high pressure continues to build south southeastward into Texas.

With a clear sky, I expect a widespread and potentially hard freeze across the Austin and south central Texas overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures are likely to fall into the 20 to 25 degree F range in outlying and low lying areas with downtown Austin likely seeing temperatures of 29 to 32 degrees F. Average lows across the city/metro area will be in the mid and upper 20s. Please remember your pets.. pipes and plants…

As surface high pressure moves east of the area and low pressure becomes better developed to the west, south southeasterly surface winds return to the area by the middle and latter part of this week, clouds and temperatures will increase once again with the slim possibility of rain. Early guidance suggests that we could see upwards of 1/4 inch of rainfall across the area with this next weather system.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very tonight through the next seven days.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 14 November 2014

…. Arctic Air Continues its Grip on Texas ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Return Over the Weekend ….
…. A Reinforcing Cold Front Due by Sunday Ushering in Additional Chill ….

On this Friday morning…. arctic high pressure continues from Texas north northeastward into eastern Nebraska and Arkansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area continues over Canada and the United States. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

Unseasonably cold temperatures continues across Texas.

Clouds overnight into this morning are due to a weak overrunning pattern. Although my timing of the clouds over the last 24 hours hasn’t been good, clouds should break and we’ll turn partly cloudy by midday into afternoon today.

By late tonight into the weekend, gulf moisture will once again “overrun” the colder surface based air with clouds thickening and lowering. We’ll see a few sprinkles across the area by tomorrow with slim rain chances Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will remain above critical levels so I just expect a cold light rain across the area.

Another reinforcing cold front, with another dose of modified arctic air, will move across the area by Sunday night with well below average temperatures continuing into the new week. Skies will be partially clearing in the wake of the Sunday front. I expect another widespread freeze across the area by next Monday night/Tuesday morning.

As east southeasterly surface winds return to the area by the middle and latter part of next week, clouds and temperatures will increase once again with the slim possibility of rain.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium today (regarding clouds breaking) then becoming high to very tonight through the weekend and into next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel