Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 11 November 2014

…. The Strong Cold Front Has Passed ….
…. Modified Colder Arctic Air Takes Hold on Texas Through the 7 Day Forecast ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Rain Return Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a strong cold front is moving southeastward from southeastern Missouri through central Arkansas into east Texas then inland along the Texas coast then west northwestward into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. High pressure.. behind the front.. is building into Texas from western Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area is over the northern USA and over southern Hudson Bay. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are westerly 25 to 35 mph.

As the upper level low pressure area over the northern USA, the strong arctic cold front has surged southeastward through Texas with much colder air.. unseasonably cold for this early in the season.. taking hold in the state.

This advancing air mass will be cold enough.. under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.. that we will see the possibility of some freezing temperatures in outlying and low lying areas for the next few nights.

By late Friday into the weekend, gulf moisture will start to “overrun” the colder surface based air with clouds thickening and lowering. We’ll start a few sprinkles across the area by Friday night with light rain chances increasing Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will remain above critical levels so I just expect a cold light rain across the area.

Another reinforcing cold front, with another dose of modified arctic air, will move across the area by early Sunday morning with below average temperatures continuing into the new week. Skies will be partially clearing in the wake of the Sunday front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very through the next seven day period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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