Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 13 November 2014

…. Arctic Air Continues its Grip on Texas ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Slim Rain Chances Return by the Weekend ….
…. A Reinforcing Cold Front Due by Sunday Ushering in Additional Chill ….

On this Thursday morning…. Arctic high pressure continues from Texas north northwestward into Montana and the western Dakotas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area continues over Canada and the United States with a trough.. or line.. of lowest pressure extending from Canada southward into Texas. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

Unseasonably cold continues across Texas. This air mass will be cold enough for us to see freezing temperatures in outlying and low lying areas tonight.

Clouds overnight into this morning are due to a passing upper air disturbance and with the disturbance passing by today, clouds will break and we’ll turn partly cloudy by midday into afternoon today.

By late tomorrow into the weekend, gulf moisture will start to “overrun” the colder surface based air with clouds thickening and lowering. We’ll see a few sprinkles across the area by late Friday night with slim rain chances Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will remain above critical levels so I just expect a cold light rain across the area.

Another reinforcing cold front, with another dose of modified arctic air, will move across the area by early Sunday morning with below average temperatures continuing into the new week. Skies will be partially clearing in the wake of the Sunday front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very through the next seven day period.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel