Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 12 November 2014

…. Arctic Air Has Texas in its Grip ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Rain Chances Return Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. A Reinforcing Cold Front Due by Late Sunday Ushering in Additional Chill ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a strong cold front is moving southeastward from the western Carolinas southwestward across the western Florida panhandle into the north central Gulf of Mexico then into eastern Mexico well south of Brownsville. High pressure.. behind the front.. is building into Texas from Montana and western Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a massive area of upper level low pressure area is south of Hudson Bay and southwestward into the eastern Dakotas. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are southwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

Unseasonably cold continues to flow southward into Texas. This air mass will be cold enough.. under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.. that we will see the possibility of some freezing temperatures in outlying and low lying areas for the next few nights.

By late Friday into the weekend, gulf moisture will start to “overrun” the colder surface based air with clouds thickening and lowering. We’ll start a few sprinkles across the area by Friday night with light rain chances increasing Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will remain above critical levels so I just expect a cold light rain across the area.

Another reinforcing cold front, with another dose of modified arctic air, will move across the area by early Sunday morning with below average temperatures continuing into the new week. Skies will be partially clearing in the wake of the Sunday front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very through the next seven day period.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel