Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 09 February 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Risks Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A stronger west-to-east oriented cold front has, well in advance of earlier forecasts, has settled southward through our area this morning. This will keep us under a mostly cloudy sky and much cooler temperatures than earlier expected through tonight.

(2) By tomorrow, a stronger series of upper level disturbances will enhance an chilly overrunning situation with rain and rain becoming more likely by afternoon into tomorrow night into most of Thursday. Fortunately, temperatures will be above critical levels wen precipitation is falling. Importantly, as the last upper air disturbance departs to the east on Thursday, this will allow a an additional push of modified arctic air to push in the area as precipitation ends Thursday evening.

(3) In the late Thursday night into Saturday night time period, indications are that we’ll see clouds continue to hold over the area as much colder air presses southward.

(4) By Sunday into Monday, there are indications that another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area from west to east with thickened cloud cover and the chance of precipitation. At this point, given the expected mostly below freezing atmospheric temperature profile expected in my colder forecast, I will indicate a light snow/sleet mix or light snow for Sunday night into Monday.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting .50″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Saturday Night..
Medium Confidence Sunday through Monday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 09 February 2021

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High 49. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 42. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with a few rain showers developing by midday then scattered rain showers by afternoon. A 20% chance of midday rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by late afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 48. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″. Low 41. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with a scattered to numerous rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″. High 49. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….Cloudy with rain chances diminishing by 9pm. Turning breezy and colder. Rain chances decreasing to 30%by 10pm. Low 33. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 44. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 30. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 42. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and much colder with a hard freeze area wide. Low 23. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold. High 33. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with some patchy light snow/sleet developing. Little snow/sleet accumulations. Low 21. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY / WASHINGTON’S BIRTHDAY…. Cloudy with some patchy light snow/sleet. Light snow/sleet accumulations possible. High 33. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 16 February 2021 through Monday / 22 February 2021…
Temperatures… Well Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 February)…………………………………. 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (09 February)…………………………………… 6:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 February)……………………………………… 7:15 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 February)………………………………………. 6:16 pm

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Risks Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As we start the new week, we continue in a warmer than average and humid air mass across the area with late night and early morning low cloudiness having returned in the overnight into morning hours. This will be the prevailing pattern through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

(2) As a series of upper level low pressure disturbances move through the area Wednesday.. Wednesday night into early Thursday, a stronger west-to-east oriented cold front will sink down into our area from north Texas by Wednesday evening. For about 12 to 18 hours following the cold frontal passage, we’ll see the last of the passing upper level low pressure disturbances create a chilly overrunning pattern with continuing rain chances into midday Thursday. While the air will be noticeably cooler, I expect the coldest of the air to remain to our distant north and northeast.

(3) In the Thursday night into Saturday time period, in a much lower confidence forecast, indications are that we’ll see clouds break as the much cooler than average surface air mass continues over the area. We need to monitor this lower confidence forecast closely in case temperatures trend colder and clouds do not break as much as I currently expect.

(3) By late Saturday night into Sunday, again, in a low confidence forecast, there are indications that another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area with increased cloud cover and some chance of precipitation. At this point, until we can better resolve the inconsistencies in the model guidance, I will keep the precipitation liquid. This will need to be closely monitored, however, in case temperatures trend colder.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting .25″ to .50″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Thursday..
Low Confidence Thursday Night through Monday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog becoming mostly sunny. High 73. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early then low clouds and patchy fog developing. Low 56. Light southerly wind becoming calm.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming mostly sunny. High 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 57. Light south southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the morning then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of morning rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by afternoon. High 73. Light southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 43. Wind shifting north northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with a scattered rain and rain showers mainly before noon. Slowly decreasing clouds by afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average less than 0.25″. High 54. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 34. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 53. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 35. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain developing in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 48. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 15 February 2021 through Sunday / 21 February 2021…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 February)…………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (08 February)…………………………………… 6:14 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09 February)……………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (09 February)………………………………………. 6:15 pm