Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 09 February 2021

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Risks Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A stronger west-to-east oriented cold front has, well in advance of earlier forecasts, has settled southward through our area this morning. This will keep us under a mostly cloudy sky and much cooler temperatures than earlier expected through tonight.

(2) By tomorrow, a stronger series of upper level disturbances will enhance an chilly overrunning situation with rain and rain becoming more likely by afternoon into tomorrow night into most of Thursday. Fortunately, temperatures will be above critical levels wen precipitation is falling. Importantly, as the last upper air disturbance departs to the east on Thursday, this will allow a an additional push of modified arctic air to push in the area as precipitation ends Thursday evening.

(3) In the late Thursday night into Saturday night time period, indications are that we’ll see clouds continue to hold over the area as much colder air presses southward.

(4) By Sunday into Monday, there are indications that another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area from west to east with thickened cloud cover and the chance of precipitation. At this point, given the expected mostly below freezing atmospheric temperature profile expected in my colder forecast, I will indicate a light snow/sleet mix or light snow for Sunday night into Monday.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting .50″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Saturday Night..
Medium Confidence Sunday through Monday..

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 09 February 2021

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High 49. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 42. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with a few rain showers developing by midday then scattered rain showers by afternoon. A 20% chance of midday rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by late afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 48. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″. Low 41. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy with a scattered to numerous rain and rain showers. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 0.25″. High 49. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….Cloudy with rain chances diminishing by 9pm. Turning breezy and colder. Rain chances decreasing to 30%by 10pm. Low 33. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 44. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 30. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 42. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and much colder with a hard freeze area wide. Low 23. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold. High 33. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with some patchy light snow/sleet developing. Little snow/sleet accumulations. Low 21. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY / WASHINGTON’S BIRTHDAY…. Cloudy with some patchy light snow/sleet. Light snow/sleet accumulations possible. High 33. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 16 February 2021 through Monday / 22 February 2021…
Temperatures… Well Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 February)…………………………………. 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (09 February)…………………………………… 6:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 February)……………………………………… 7:15 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 February)………………………………………. 6:16 pm