Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Tropical Cyclone Laura Update (Tues/25Aug2020)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Tropical Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1100am CT – Tuesday / 25 August 2020

… Tropical Cyclone Laura Update …
… Hurricane Warnings Issued for Upper Texas Coast …
… PLEASE Heed Advice from Local Officials If You Are in The Warning Areas …

My Observations/Thoughts…
It looks like tropical cyclone Laura, currently a hurricane with highest sustained winds of 75 mph, will continue to strengthen.. perhaps rapidly.. over the next 24 hours before making landfall on the upper Texas coast/southwestern Louisiana coast just after midnight tomorrow (Wednesday) night. As a result, hurricane warnings have been posted by the NWS/National Hurricane Center for these areas, well east of Austin, in the latest 10am advisory.

This latest NWS/National Hurricane Center forecast solution continues to keep us on the drier west side of this system with minimal if any direct effects for the IH35 corridor. A little stronger northerly surface wind will develop by tomorrow into Thursday as tropical cyclone Laura makes land fall and moves up the Sabine River in extreme east Texas/western Louisiana toward the Shreveport area as it decreases in intensity. In drier areas over our area of the state, this increase in wind could result in some higher wildfire danger.

ALL interests along middle/upper Texas coast eastward into Louisiana should continue to closely monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and other trusted weather sources. Always be a good critical thinker.. avoid unknown/untrusted social media sources that display the worse cases forecast scenarios in order to get the most social media “clicks.

I’ll continuing to monitor..

tk

… Authority / NWS National Hurricane Center … 
… Tropical Cyclone Laura …

cone graphic 
time of arrival graphic

Marco / Laura Update (Mon/24Aug2020)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Tropical Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1035am CT – Monday / 24 August 2020

… Tropical Cyclone Marco / Laura Update …
… Continuing My Thought That There Will Be Little or No Effect for IH35 Corridor …

My Observations/Thoughts…
After the major shift eastward of the forecast track of tropical cyclone Marco late Saturday.. things have been a bit more consistent overall.

The latest (10am) NWS/National Hurricane Center forecast solution continues to keep us on the drier west side of these systems with minimal if any direct effects for the IH35 corridor. A little stronger and gusty northerly surface wind will develop by mid week as the remnants of Marco (a depression) meanders west northwestward to near Bryan/College Station (by 7am Wednesday) while tropical cyclone Laura, as a hurricane, makes land fall in extreme southwest Louisiana (a little after midnight Wednesday night); this could result in an increase in fire danger in Central Texas drought areas that did not receive much rainfall on Saturday.

ALL interests along and inland onshore of the upper Texas coast eastward to the Alabama coast should continue to closely monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and other trusted weather sources. Always be a good critical thinker.. avoid unknown/untrusted social media sources that display the worse cases forecast scenarios in order to get the most social media “clicks.

I’ll continuing to monitor.. just in case (after all, it is 2020)!!

tk

… Authority / NWS National Hurricane Center …

… Tropical Cyclone Marco …
cone graphic

time of arrival graphic

… Tropical Cyclone Laura …
cone graphic

time of arrival graphic