Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 19 August 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. A Lightning and Gusty Wind Threat with Thunderstorms Today and Tonight ….
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Our more unstable air mass will combine once again today with the weakening cold front overhead and atmospheric lift along with available low level moisture; as a result, we’re seeing the higher rain chances continue in the forecast today into this evening.
(2) With the weakening front returning northward as a warm front tonight into Saturday, rain chances will continue into our upcoming weekend but the chance of rain for any given location will decrease under a partly cloudy sky tomorrow as temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages with highs edging back into the upper 90s to 100 (especially in areas that have not experienced much rainfall).
(3) A tropical disturbance, currently over the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to move northwestward today. As this occurs, a surface low pressure area seems to be developing as it moves over the western Gulf of Mexico towards the northern coast of Mexico and far south Texas. The NWS/National Hurricane Center now says there is a 60% chance of development of this system over the next few days. A reminder that all interests in the far western Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas should monitor this system closely into the weekend and even early next week since it could result in changes in our forecast.
(4) With this before mentioned tropical disturbance in mind, another weak southward moving cold front and an associated low pressure trough (line of low pressure) will develop over Texas for the early into mid part of next week. With the influx of rich gulf moisture into south and central Texas with aforementioned tropical disturbance, much better rain and thunderstorm chances are showing up for much of next week with the possibility of very significant rainfall amounts for a good part of our area. Where heaviest rainfall occurs, some flooding problems could begin to occur. In addition, I expect, due to cloud cover and precipitation, for daytime high temperatures to be below normal for a change.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of
3 to 5 inches.. with isolated higher total possible.. over our area over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 19 August 2022
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms redeveloping with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 96. Light wind becoming more east southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 76. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. Low 77. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy and not as warm with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain possible. Given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 89. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 75. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain possible. Given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 1.00 to 2.00 inches. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 75. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain possible. Given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.50 to 0.75 inches. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 26 August through Thursday / 01 September 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 Aug)………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (19 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:08 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 Aug)…………………………………………….. 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:07 pm