Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 18 August 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorm Later Today through Tonight ….
…. A Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind Threat Later Today into Tonight ….
…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Our upper level high pressure area will is shifting back westward into the U. S. west coast region so that our upper level winds overhead have turned a bit more north northwesterly which has allowed our atmosphere to become more unstable as a weak cold front moves southward into central Texas. Put this instability and atmospheric lift together with available low level moisture, we’ll be seeing much better rain chances return to our local forecast later today into tomorrow as afternoon highs come down a little closer to season averages.
(2) With the front to our north weakening and returning back northward as a warm front, rain chances will continue into our upcoming weekend but the chance of rain for any given location will decrease a bit under a partly cloudy sky on Saturday as temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages with highs back closer to 100.
(3) A tropical disturbance, currently a tropical wave over central America, is forecast to move northwestward and then emerge by tomorrow over the Bay of Campeche where a surface low pressure area is forecast to develop as it then moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico towards the Brownsville/Corpus Christi areas. The NWS/National Hurricane Center now says there is a 30% chance of development of this system over the next five days. A reminder that all interests in the far western Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas should monitor this system closely into the weekend and even early next week since it could result in changes in our forecast.
(4) With this before mentioned tropical disturbance in mind, another weak southward moving cold front and an associated low pressure trough (line of low pressure) will develop over Texas for the early into mid part of next week. With the influx of gulf moisture with the tropical disturbance, much better rain and thunderstorm chances are showing up for, at least, the early into mid part of next week with the possibility of significant rainfall amounts for a good part of south central and north Texas. Where heaviest rainfall occurs, some flooding problems could occur.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of
2 to 4 inches over our area over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A medium to high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 18 August 2022
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 100. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph except becoming very strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9pm with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 76. Light and variable wind except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 97. Light wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 77. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat developing in the afternoon. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not as warm with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 91. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 90. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 25 August through Wednesday / 31 August 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 Aug)………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (18 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:09 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 Aug)…………………………………………….. 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:08 pm