Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 17 September 2020 ….

   
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Hazard Associated with Any Thunderstorm …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As the front to our southeast washes out, an upper level low pressure disturbance, moving in from the west northwest, results in a more unstable weather pattern with an increase in cloud cover and rain chances today into tomorrow.

(2) As the upper air disturbance moves eastward away from the area and the remnants of tropical cyclone Sally moves northeastward through the southeastern USA, a weak cold front will “backdoor” (moving in from the north northeast) its way across the IH35 corridor tomorrow night into early Saturday. This will result in a more stable, drier and slightly cooler air mass moving into the area from the northeast along with plenty of sunshine for our upcoming weekend and into next week.

(3) We need to increase our awareness of a tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NWS/National Hurricane Center now expects this system to become a tropical cyclone over the next few days. The system will initially get “trapped” to the south by the cold front moving into Texas tomorrow into early next week but as the front washes out, there are indications, in a very low confidence forecast, that by the middle part of next week, this potential tropical system may shift northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It’s way too early to say anything about where this system may end up, but it is safe to say that all interests along the Texas coast should be monitoring information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, local National Weather Service offices and other trusted weather sources. Be a good critical thinker.. avoid unknown/untrusted social media sources that display the worse cases forecast scenarios in order to get the most social media “clicks.”  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests the potential of 0.25″ or less of rain, in general, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days (through Wednesday) with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today through Friday..
High confidence
Saturday through Tuesday..
Very High confidence
Wednesday..
Low to Medium confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Thursday / 17 September 2020

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 88. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 9pm. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 70. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear as a weak cold front passes. Low 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 86. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 61. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 64. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 87. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 88. Light east northeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 24 September 2020 through Wednesday / 30 September 2020…
Temperatures… Near Average    
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 September)…………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (17 September)………………………………. 7:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 September)…………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 September)………………………………….. 7:32 pm