Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 16 September 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Hazard Associated with Any Thunderstorm …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) The weak stationary front, currently draped out along the Texas coast, is weakening and washing out. Short range, high resolution model guidance continues suggests that isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may once again develop today in the afternoon into the evening but the rain chances for any given location will remain really slim and mainly in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor.

(2) As the front to our southeast washes out, an approaching upper level low pressure disturbance, moving in from the west northwest, results in a more unstable weather pattern with an increase in cloud cover and rain chances by tomorrow into Friday.

(3) As the upper air disturbance moves eastward away from the area and remnants of tropical cyclone Sally moves northeastward through the southeastern USA, another weak cold front will “backdoor” (moving in from the north northeast) its way across the IH35 corridor Friday night into early Saturday. This will result in a more stable, drier and slightly cooler air mass moving into the area from the northeast along with plenty of sunshine for our upcoming weekend and into next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests the potential of 0.25″ or less of rain, in general, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days (through Tuesday) with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today..
Very High confidence
Thursday through Friday..
Medium to High confidence
Saturday through Tuesday..
Very High confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Wednesday / 16 September 2020

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 72. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 88. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 9pm. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 70. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm; A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.10″. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly clear after midnight as a weak cold front passes. Low 67. Light northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 86. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 63. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 64. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 87. Light easterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 23 September 2020 through Tuesday / 29 September 2020…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 September)…………………………….. 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (16 September)………………………………. 7:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 September)…………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 September)………………………………….. 7:33 pm