Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 18 September 2020 ….
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… A Lightning Hazard Associated with Any Thunderstorm …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Slim rain chances linger today as an upper air disturbance moves east away from the area.
(2) As the upper air disturbance moves eastward away from the area and the remnants of tropical cyclone Sally moves northeastward through the southeastern USA, a weak cold front will “backdoor” (moving in from the north northeast) its way across the IH35 corridor. This will result in a more stable, drier and slightly cooler air mass moving into the area from the northeast along with plenty of sunshine for our upcoming weekend.
(3) There is considerable uncertainty regarding the tropical cyclone (currently a tropical depression) over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NWS/National Hurricane Center now expects this system to become a bit stronger over the next few days. The system will move very slowly northeastward over the next 24 hours then turn more westward and approach the lower and middle Texas coast and then turn back northeastward by the early to mid part of next week (showing what a slow moving system this will be). Be aware that this is a very low confidence forecast and it is way too early to say anything about where this system may ultimately end up, but it is safe to say that all interests along the Texas coast should be monitoring information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, local National Weather Service offices and other trusted weather sources. Be a good critical thinker.. avoid unknown/untrusted social media sources that display the worse cases forecast scenarios in order to get the most social media “clicks.” NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, in a very low confidence forecast, suggests the potential of 0.50″ to 1.00″, in general, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days (through next Thursday) with temperatures near seasonal averages.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today through Sunday..
Very High confidence
Monday through Thursday..
Much Lower confidence
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 18 September 2020
TODAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A less than 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear. Low 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 86. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 61. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 85. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly south and southeast of the Austin area. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 83. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly south and southeast of the Austin area. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly south and southeast of the Austin area. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 81. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly south and southeast of the Austin area. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly southeast of the Austin area. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 83. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 64. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly east and southeast of the Austin area. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 85. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 25 September 2020 through Thursday / 01 October 2020…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 September)…………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (18 September)………………………………. 7:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 September)…………………………………. 7:18 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 September)………………………………….. 7:31 pm