Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 15 February 2022
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. No Hazards Expected ….
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) As lower pressure becomes established over the central plains state, we’ll see a warm front return northward across the area today into tonight which will return a strong southerly surface wind flow along with low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
(2) A stronger upper air low pressure disturbance will move across Texas late tomorrow into early Thursday followed by a series of surface cold fronts early Thursday. With better access to low level moisture as well as a more unstable atmosphere, the atmospheric lift associated with these systems will allow for a few sprinkles as early as tomorrow then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow night into the predawn hours Thursday.
(3) In the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance, a series of cold fronts will pass on Thursday allowing surface high pressure to rebuild southeastward into Texas from the Rockies and Plains. This will allowing for a dry and cooler weather pattern to prevail late week through our upcoming weekend.
(4) Long range guidance suggests another low pressure storm system will be approaching Texas from the west with a return southerly surface wind as well as increased cloud cover and humidity by early into early parts of next week.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting less than 0.25 inch of precipitation over the next seven days.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
—-
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 15 February 2022
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph increasing to 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts by afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Increasing cloudiness becoming mostly cloudy. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 76. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles early and then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated threat of lightning after 11pm. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.
THURSDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny and less humid as a series of cold fronts passes. mid late morning into midday. High 69. West southwesterly wind early shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly clear late. Colder. Low 34. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 34. Light north northeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 65. Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 39. Light east southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then increasing low clouds late. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 22 February 2022 through Monday / 28 February 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 February)…………………………………… 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (15 February)…………………………………….. 6:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 February)……………………………………….. 7:10 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 February)………………………………………… 6:20 pm