Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 14 February 2022
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. No Hazards Expected ….
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A dry start to our new week as surface high pressure shifts east of the area allowing a return to a southerly wind.
(2) Beginning tomorrow and continuing into Wednesday, as lower pressure becomes established over the central plains state, we’ll see a warm front return northward across the area which will return low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
(3) A stronger upper air low pressure disturbance will move across Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday followed by a series of surface cold fronts early Thursday. With better access to low level moisture as well as a more unstable atmosphere, the atmospheric lift associated with these systems will allow for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the day Wednesday and continuing well into Wednesday night. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong especially northeast of the Austin metro area especially Wednesday night.
(4) In the wake of the series of cold fronts early Thursday, surface high pressure will build southeastward into Texas from the Rockies and Plains allowing for a dry and cooler weather pattern to prevail late week through our upcoming weekend.
(5) Long range guidance suggests another low pressure storm system will be approaching Texas from the west with a return southerly surface wind as well as increased cloud cover and humidity by early next week.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting around 0.25 inch or less of precipitation over the next seven days.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
—-
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 14 February 2022
TODAY…. Sunshine. High 69. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early with increasing low clouds after midnight. Low 44. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. High 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph increasing to 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts by afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing cloudiness becoming mostly cloudy. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated threat of lightning mainly in the afternoon. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch. High 75. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated threat of lightning. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated threat of lightning before 8am as a series of cold fronts pass. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. Clearing, breezy and less humid late morning into midday. High 65. West southwesterly wind early shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly clear late. Colder. Low 34. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 35. Light north northeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 65. Light northeasterly wind.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 38. Light wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Light wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 21 February 2022 through Sunday / 27 February 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 February)…………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (14 February)…………………………………….. 6:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 February)……………………………………….. 7:11 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 February)………………………………………… 6:20 pm