Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Rain Chances on the Increase (Tu/30Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 30 August 2022

 

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Threat with Thunderstorms Today into Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) The air mass overhead has turned more unstable as a more moist and tropical air mass moves ashore of the Texas coast in combination with upward lift associated with passing weak disturbances overhead. In addition, by mid into late week, a south southwestward moving “back door” cold front moves into northeast Texas and settles southwestward as it weakens and washes out. As a result, we’re seeing increasing rain and thunderstorm chances continuing through the balance of the week.

(2) Even though rain chances will linger, we’ll see a little more sunshine with rainfall probabilities dropping a little for Saturday and Sunday.

(3) Initial computer model and manual guidance suggests increasing rain and thunderstorm chances again by Sunday night into the first part of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of
2.00 to 3.00 inches over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 30 August 2022

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. High 90. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 75. Light south southeasterly wind becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. Low 75. Calm wind.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. Low 74. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. Low 73. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 91. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm. Given a 40% chance of rain before 8pm and a 20% after 8pm at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light easterly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 90. Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light wind.

MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 89. Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 06 September through Monday / 12 September 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (30 Aug)………………………………………… 7:07 am
Sunset this evening (30 Aug)………………………………………….. 7:56 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (31 Aug)…………………………………………….. 7:07 am
Sunset tomorrow (31 Aug)……………………………………………… 7:54 pm