Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A More Unsettled Weather Pattern (Mo/29Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 29 August 2022

 

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning and Gusty Wind Threat with Thunderstorms Today into Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) The air mass overhead will turn a bit more unstable over the next few days as an increasing moist and tropical air mass moves ashore of the Texas coast in combination with passing weak disturbances overhead. In addition, by late week, a south southwestward moving “back door” cold front moves into northeast Texas and settles further southwestward. After relatively slim rain chances today, this will result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances beginning tomorrow and continuing through Thursday.

(2) Some guidance suggests a slightly drier and more stable air mass will settle southwestward in the wake of the backdoor cold front but the big question is how deep that front will actually make it into Texas. At this point, based on the assumption that the front will make it into our area, I will reduce (but not drop) the rain chances Friday into Saturday.

(3) Initial computer model and manual guidance suggests increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by Sunday into the first part of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of
1.00 to 1.75 inches over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A medium to high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 29 August 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. High 96. Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 93. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 76. Light south southeasterly wind becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 75. Calm wind.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 91. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly
4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 74. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 7pm. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 73. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 91. Calm wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 05 September through Sunday / 11 September 2022
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 Aug)………………………………………… 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (29 Aug)………………………………………….. 7:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30 Aug)…………………………………………….. 7:07 am
Sunset tomorrow (30 Aug)……………………………………………… 7:56 pm