TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Forecast (Thu/9Feb2012)

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1:30pm CST.. Thursday / 9 February 2012

TODAY…. Clouds thickening becoming mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles by late afternoon. High 55 to 58. Northeasterly winds become easterly by midday and then southeasterly by late in the day. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will amount only to trace amounts.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain developing area wide.. rain chances increasing to 70%. A few thunderstorms possible. Low 45 to 49. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph. Rainfall will amount to 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy with a 60% chance of rain.. with isolated thunderstorms.. in the morning. Rain chances decreasing in the afternoon. High 58 to 62. Westerly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph late in the afternoon as a cold front passes. Additional rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 41 to 45. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 54 to 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles after midnight. Low 38 to 42.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. High 54 to 58.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 43 to 47.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and warmer with a 40% chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. High 62 to 66.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Low 49 to 53.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 70 to 74.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 52 to 56.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold moves through the area. High 71 to 75.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 16 Feb 2012 through Wednesday / 22 Feb 2012…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (9 Feb)………….. 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (9 Feb)……………. 6:15 pm
Sunrise Thursday (10 Feb)…………….. 7:15 am
Sunset Thursday (10 Feb)……………… 6:16 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED THURSDAY / 9 FEBRUARY 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 410 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 15 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…American Elm 5.. Ash 10..

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/9Feb2012)

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Updated  130pm Thursday / 9 February 2012

…. Clouds Thicken as Another Upper Level Low to the West Causes Overrunning ….
…. Rain Chances Increase Through Late Week as Disturbances Move Overhead ….
…. Cooler Than Average Temps Now; Warmer by Late Weekend/Next Week ….

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is located to our east northeast over the middle Mississippi Valley region. A surface low pressure area with an associated north/south trough (or line) of low pressure over west Texas and eastern New Mexico.
As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind is returning to the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is located over the southern part of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate southwesterly.

As the surface high pressure.. to our east northeast..  continues to move east of the area, a southeasterly surface wind is becoming reestablished over our area. Clouds, which have been slower to return to the area than I thought over the last couple of days, are finally thickening as the upper level low pressure area, over the southern part of the Baja, has already reestablished over southwesterly wind aloft with Pacific moisture moving northeastward out of Mexico contributing to an overrunning pattern.

The overrunning pattern is expected to last through late week into the weekend with upper air low pressure disturbances moving northeastward over the area and helping to create atmospheric lift and instability tonight into tomorrow. Rain chances are greatest tonight with rain probabilities decreasing by tomorrow afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch are possible. Under the clouds and with the chance of precipitation, expect temperatures to be below seasonal averages through tomorrow.

A reinforcing cold front will move into Texas by later tomorrow into early Saturday. The front will only act to reinforce the air mass in place across our area. However, clouds are expected to persist following the frontal passage with some breaks in the overcast Saturday.

By late in the weekend, we’ll see a warm up as a southerly surface wind becomes reestablished. Clouds will continue to be a factor with a renewed rain chance as the air mass becomes more unstable.

As another surface low pressure area and cold front approach us for the middle part of next week, we’ll see a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week is very high. My forecast confidence for the coming weekend through the middle part of next week is still medium to high (frontal timing on Wednesday and timing of precipitation being an issue).

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a cloudy sky with rain.. rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s with a southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, expect a mostly cloudy sky with rain in the morning with rain chances decreasing in the afternoon. Highs around 60 with an easterly wind becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel